Cumulative Emissions of CO2

January 3, 2010 – Original source: A Response to Climate Change

An analysis of published data (see graph below) indicates human activity has been responsible for releasing more than 300 billion tons of carbon (1.1 trillion tons of CO2) into the atmosphere since the start of the industrial revolution and that this represents something approaching 55% of a total that scientists predict will lead to significant climate stress if the resultant rise in carbon dioxide levels is not halted. Although the figures used in preparing the graph do not consider other factors such as deforestation / change of land use (human induced) or increased acidification of the oceans (environmental response to higher atmospheric concentrations of CO2), it may be concluded there is not much time remaining for nations to negotiate quotas if concentrations in excess of 450 ppm (parts per million) are to be avoided.

Cumulative Anthropogenic Emissions of Carbon Dioxide to the Atmosphere
since 1850
Source of data: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC.org) and values
of atmospheric CO2 concentrations from Mauna Loa, as well as other locations.

NB: This and the following graphs exclude details of carbon emissions from change
of land use, including deforestation. Also see commentary on predicted emissions
and the accuracy of historical emissions data in an article from Climate Policy

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The following points from material used to prepare this post may also be noted:

• The developed nations (Western Europe, Germany, North America and some members of the Far East and Oceania groupings) constituting approximately 20% of the World’s population have been responsible for nearly 60% of emissions generated to date.
• The rate of emissions is accelerating. For example, it took more than a century to release the first 100 billion tons of carbon, whereas the second and third milestones occurred within the space of 22 and 15 years respectively. At current rates, we can expect to reach the 500 billion ton milestone by 2030. (NB: See April commentary for a new graph that incorporates details of emissions associated with change of land use).
• Despite the request in the run-up to the climate conference held in Copenhagen this December for an equitable share of remaining capacity, there would seem to be little room for manoeuvre in respect to how future emission quotas might be allocated between the developed and developing World. Requiring developed nations to dramatically reduce current emission rates (say by 50%), whilst allowing developing nations more generous allowances is something that leaders and politicians in the US and Europe would find extremely hard to sell to their constituents. It is also likely to encourage further leakage / externalisation of manufacturing capacity to and consequent trade disputes with those nations that were successful in negotiating higher allowances.

Annual Emissions of Carbon Dioxide from the Combustion of
Fossil Fuels and Production of Cement by Region: 1850-2006
Source of data: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, sited above.

• The member countries of Eastern Europe (including Russia, Poland, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) have been high emitters of carbon dioxide since the 1950’s. Whilst the collapse of their economies at the beginning of the 1990’s served to reduce total emissions, there would now appear to be a case for retiring grand-fathered options so as to reduce the sale of offsets by these countries and to encourage real improvements in regional rates of fuel consumption. Again, this is something leaders would find hard to sell to their countrymen.
• More accurate information on the contribution that change of land use, including deforestation is making to carbon dioxide levels needs to be taken into consideration when negotiating emission quotas with developing nations. The World Resources Institute has suggested this source may have increased total emissions by a further 18%, but the value used by many commentators appears to date back to a flow chart prepared by the WRI some 10 years ago.
• Middle income and developing nations would appear to be highly reliant on carbon-intensive activities to grow their economies. This includes the widespread use of fuel subsidies, a large increase in the number of fossil fuelled plants used to generate power and the commissioning of infrastructure projects with high embedded energy and operational energy demands. Such nations should be required to demonstrate more energy efficient policies in return for any financial support that they might negotiate with developed nations.
• Predictions that developing nations will become the dominant producers of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by 2050 appear to be missing a point. The more immediate concern is to see if a start on reducing emissions can be achieved before 2020.

Cumulative Emissions of Carbon Dioxide and Percentage by Region: 1850-2006
Source of data: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, sited above.

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Some additional reference material:

• Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Michael R. Raupach, et al. Global Climate Project report, April 2007.
• World Resources Institute, Navigating the Numbers
• World Resources Institute, Earth Trends – Cumulative CO2 Emissions, 1900-2005
• World Resources Institute, Earth Trends – Cumulative Carbon Emissions, 1950-1999